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"5th" French republic in 1946?

 
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Lascaris



Inscrit le: 21 Avr 2019
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MessagePosté le: Sam Aoû 28, 2021 21:26    Sujet du message: "5th" French republic in 1946? Répondre en citant

So Charles De Gaulle forms Rally of the French People a year early, in time to contest the French 1946 elections. His party wins ~41% of the vote as much as it got in the 1947 municipal elections. He goes on to win the presidency winning against a communist candidate in a two round election. France gets a semi-presidential system broadly similar to the 5th republic from late 1946, with De Gaulle winning one more election in 1953 (or alternatively elections in 1951 and 1956) before stepping down and Mollet's socialists getting the presidency.

France still joins NATO and participates in Korea of course. In Indochina assuming Duy Tan is still alive, De Gaulle likely tries setting up a Vietnamese state under him. Even if not I can see De Gaulle doing "Vietnamization" to steal the American term earlier and stepping away of the mess more graciously. Militarily you likely get an earlier nuclear program and the same drive towards technological sel-sufficiency.


Which leaves the question of Algeria... I can't see Algerian nationalism not rising its rise predates WW2. I neither see De Gaulle giving up without a fight... so how does an earlier De Gaulle administration handle things? For example how likely it would be for a De Gaulle administration actually giving the vote to all men who had served to the French army during the war for a start and the whole population afterwards?

Thoughts?
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demolitiondan



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MessagePosté le: Sam Aoû 28, 2021 22:51    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant

Many many questions here Lascaris. As far as I know, and from my knowledge and believes :
- It is not absolutly certain that DG would win by lot a presidential election in 46. The big guy is too much of a Strong spirit to accept the petty political game ... and it is not a friend of PC, but clearly a reminder of war. But, by opposition, the PC is getting a lot of opposition - in 82, the Mitterand election caused a lot of nervous breakdown and panic. Of course, socialist were assimilated to communist those days - would have been the same in 53,
- DG would not join NATO, but may participate in Korea only if he doesn't have other stuff to deal with. No Indochina ? Maybe - but it will fragilize him, and jeopardize election. In 2020, some still calls him traitor for Algeria.
In fact, DG politic is very simple : sufficience, self-determination and disbelief in international organization. The "certaine idée de la France".
Back to Algeria - clearly the most complex stuff. Because Algeria is no colony - it is France, with 2 millions people and 3 departements. There is no way to give it up - and the algerian won't give it up either. Therefore, and as long as the algerian don't want to become french (best case incoming ...)...

BTW, can you give a link of yours works please ? Cool
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Casus Frankie
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MessagePosté le: Dim Aoû 29, 2021 02:08    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant

A few notes only…
- No Indochina war, and no Vietnam war. The three indochinese states will stay unaligned.
- No Korea War… because probably only one Korea.
- But a very strong risk of conflicts in or around China.
- In France, a very different 4th Republic, between OTL 3rd and 5th. About De Gaulle, certainly an important role, but this is out of our uchrony.
- About Algeria, more than three years of war with head of government and army in Algeria will build very strong ties and a much better understanding between "Metropolitans" and all kinds of Algerians,
probably driving (after some difficult phases) to some kind of "Independance-Association"… then to full independance, of course - but with an Algeria free of the co-dictature of FLN and islamists we can see today.
Anyway, FTL, post-war France is much poorer than OTL - war is expensive and most of the gold of Banque de France is now in american hands. Any colonial war would be much too expensive for the Republic to wage. Happily, the "need" to keep colonies many people felt OTL will not exist, as France's honor and status will have been preserved.
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demolitiondan



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MessagePosté le: Dim Aoû 29, 2021 11:15    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant

Careful down here Lascaris - my answer is Original Time Line, Casus's FTL.
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C’est en trichant pour le beau que l’on est artiste
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Lascaris



Inscrit le: 21 Avr 2019
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MessagePosté le: Dim Aoû 29, 2021 15:21    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant

demolitiondan a écrit:

- DG would not join NATO, but may participate in Korea only if he doesn't have other stuff to deal with. No Indochina ? Maybe - but it will fragilize him, and jeopardize election. In 2020, some still calls him traitor for Algeria.


Not certain on NATO. Don't quite think De Gaulle was against military alliances as such. Making the French military subordinate to SACEUR is a different matter of course...


Citation:


BTW, can you give a link of yours works please ? Cool


Lets avoid delving into 15-20 year old history ad stick to this. Smile

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/of-lost-monkeys-and-broken-vehicles.494608/reader/
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demolitiondan



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MessagePosté le: Dim Aoû 29, 2021 16:16    Sujet du message: Répondre en citant

DG when he withdraw :

Citation:
at the latest in 1969, the qualified subordination of integration which is foreseen by NATO and which puts our destiny back to the foreign authority will cease.


The alliance yes, the integration no way,
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Quand la vérité n’ose pas aller toute nue, la robe qui l’habille le mieux est encore l’humour &
C’est en trichant pour le beau que l’on est artiste
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