Fantasque Time Line

[demolitiondan]

BTW Wings about questionning on the bulgarian attempt. The main difference is not on the north. It is on the south. From Sofia POV, there is strictly nothing between Monty's tank at Salonika and themself. In fact, this is not a POV. It is true. And Lavrishev is ambassador of an allied of the UK, which is also historical protector of Bulgaria so there is some kind of thinking to be done. Especially with romanian crumbling in Moldova, which make believe that this country will soon become KO.
Except of course, that soviets are soviets and Kyrill of Preslav a regent.
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Quand la vérité n’ose pas aller toute nue, la robe qui l’habille le mieux est encore l’humour &
C’est en trichant pour le beau que l’on est artiste

[Wings]

It still makes no sense as to:
- why Kyril did not try to contact the British
- still went through with his plan even when he had no guarantees whatsoever from the Allies
- knew what happened to Italy
- tried to fire off his plan so early
- trusted the word of a government notably opposed to monarchies
- did not trust the word of his main general who told him that the plan had a high chance of failing
It all reeks of mind-boggling incompetence and stretches suspension of disbelief to its limit.
The Bulgaria issue is probably the one in FFO which makes the least sense, which is a shame.
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"It takes the Navy three years to build a ship. It will take three hundred years to build a new tradition. The evacuation will continue." Sir Andrew Cunningham, Mai 1941
"Let me soar! [...] I need no great host, just [Tyene]" - Nymeria Sand, AFFC II

[demolitiondan]

It still makes no sense as to:
- why Kyril did not try to contact the British

No need because trusted russia "we are not even at war with" come to us with a clever plan which is implied to engage all UN ?

- still went through with his plan even when he had no guarantees whatsoever from the Allies

Never had been, never will be. Italian did have, btw.

- knew what happened to Italy

Yes and basically, for him, il was a success ! Did Italy crumbled and disappeared ? No !

- tried to fire off his plan so early

No choice due to increasing german and Beckerle pression.

- trusted the word of a government notably opposed to monarchies

To be discusted, to say the least. URSS maintained all time a friendly relation with Sofia. We see it nowaday, even if communism went trought,

- did not trust the word of his main general who told him that the plan had a high chance of failing

See above - what choice ?

It all reeks of mind-boggling incompetence and stretches suspension of disbelief to its limit. The Bulgaria issue is probably the one in FFO which makes the least sense, which is a shame.

And last but not least, the UK has no plans for Bulgaria (too far, a Russian friend). What interest it is Vienna, and Belgrade/Budapest. Sofia had doubts indeed about that but what choice did it have ? Basically, do not try the turning implies DOW by Russia, engagement against British in Greece (do be avoided at all cost) and probable end of country as constitued nation.
If you read, let say, about the italian and the hungarian flipping, you may be amazed by the degree af "amateurisme" displayed OTL there. Why would it be different FTL ?
Basically, prince forgot that Moscow would rather prefer a governement it Own rather that a governement owned by something.
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Quand la vérité n’ose pas aller toute nue, la robe qui l’habille le mieux est encore l’humour &
C’est en trichant pour le beau que l’on est artiste

[Wings]

Still makes no sense.
If Kyril expected the British tanks to roll in, he should not have expected the word of a Soviet ambassador who did not even confirm that they would come in.
Italy was almost a disaster and the Italians had the good sense to coordinate with the Allies, which he didn't do.

His decisions were all incredibly awful, and make no sense no matter how you look at it. The fact that he didn't even contact the British before launching his plan to ensure that yes, they would help, was completely dumb and should have been his number one priority.

Because of the suspension of the Allied offensives and the Siege of Salonika, Kyril had about two months before Market to prepare a side-switch of his country.

All he had to do was contact the British, who would have told him to stay put for a month before the ANZAC could roll in, and that's it.

As I said, what's done is done, but Bulgaria going Red is not canon for me, so much the stupidity in the decision-making of Kyril is large and suspends disbelief.
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"It takes the Navy three years to build a ship. It will take three hundred years to build a new tradition. The evacuation will continue." Sir Andrew Cunningham, Mai 1941
"Let me soar! [...] I need no great host, just [Tyene]" - Nymeria Sand, AFFC II

[demolitiondan]

You're talking like this because you know Salonika is going to be a mess and you expect London to care about Bulgaria, even if it is implies disgrunding the Reds.
It's does not. Moscow is a traditionnal Bulgaria allies, Sofia has no way to contact France/Uk and especially no need to do so because they re allready supposed to have done this through soviet canal (which would have been logical, TBF ...).
In short, Preslav tought he had coordinated with allies. He did not. Pity. Sure an italian disaster would have suited him. But 'Italians had the good sense to coordinate with the Allies' ? Really ?
_________________
Quand la vérité n’ose pas aller toute nue, la robe qui l’habille le mieux est encore l’humour &
C’est en trichant pour le beau que l’on est artiste

[Casus Frankie]

The Brits know perfectly Bulgaria is seen by Stalin as a part of HIS share of Europe.
And Monty knows his main objective is not Sofia, but Vienna.
Of course, Churchill would like both, but he'll understand quickly Monty is right – Sofia isn't worth all the problems it would create with the Soviets.
So they leave Kyrill believe Moscow and London are both nice and friendly to Sofia, and acting together to protect his little country's interest.
Well - amateurism, just like Demo Dan wrote.
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Casus Frankie

"Si l'on n'était pas frivole, la plupart des gens se pendraient" (Voltaire)

[demolitiondan]

BTW Wings, due to my extensive contribution in 43-44 and in order to maybe answer any question if needed, i have finally decided to make an account for myself in AH. Permission granted to intervene if needed ?
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Quand la vérité n’ose pas aller toute nue, la robe qui l’habille le mieux est encore l’humour &
C’est en trichant pour le beau que l’on est artiste

[Archibald]

Youpi ! Thunder racoon is in the place !
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Sergueï Lavrov: "l'Ukraine subira le sort de l'Afghanistan" - Moi: ah ouais, comme en 1988.
...
"C'est un asile de fous; pas un asile de cons. Faudrait construire des asiles de cons mais - vous imaginez un peu la taille des bâtiments..."

[Wings]

[demolitiondan]

Right thanks !
Tiens Archibald, j'aurai dû prendre ca comme pseudo.
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Quand la vérité n’ose pas aller toute nue, la robe qui l’habille le mieux est encore l’humour &
C’est en trichant pour le beau que l’on est artiste

[loic]

Two good readings about Bulgaria and the liberation of Greece (bith things are linkled):
- ‘The Usual Bulgarian Stratagems’: The Big Three and the End of the Bulgarian Occupation of Greek Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, September–October 1944
- The Macedonian Question: Britain and the Southern Balkans 1939-1949; chapter 4 (abstract only)

After continental Greece falls in 1941, Bulgaria annexes eastern Macedonia, Thrace (except a small landstrip which the German keep as a buffer with Turkey, despite bulgarian protests), Thasos and Samothrace (see map below). All this comes from lost territories after the Treaty of Neuilly-sur-Seine.

The Bulgarian occupation was quite horrible.

OTL, it appears that :
- Secret negotiations with the western Allies had begun in January 1944.
- No bulgarian government wanted to abandon the territorial gains (but the western Allies were far away).
- Soviet Union had an unclear position on bulgarian-occupied greek territories (contrary to the yugoslavian ones). Maybe thet were already thinking about a possible naval base in the Aegean?
- The US position about that question was also unclear, there were mainly not interested in this affair.
- Only the British had a clear position, but they feared that negociations between the Greeks and the Soviets would mean an increased position for the ELAS (greek communists) and this was to be avoided at all costs.
- For London, the coup and the presence of the Red Army in Bulgaria emitted a loud and clear signal: the USSR was effectively in the driver’s seat in Bulgaria.
- After the 9th September coup in Sofia, the bulgarian army didn't move from occupied territories (only from western Macedonia).
- Until October, the Bulgarians tried to play smart, indicating that they were the only force being able to prevent civil war between greek resistance groups (first british troops in Athens on 14th October only) and after that pretending they were still in Greece only to prepare cobelligerent fighting against the Germans.
- Very clearly, Moscow was playing with that question of greek territories only to have free hands for the other countries (Bulgaria, of course).
- At the "Percentages Agreement" in Moscou between Churchill and Stalin (9th October), the question was finally settled. London insisted that evacuation of greek territories was the condition of ceasefire with Bulgaria -> Churchill clearly traded Greece (and influence on Turkey) for Romania and Bulgaria.
- Evacuation was completed on 25th October (BTW, the civilian power was transfered to ELAS groups...).
- Armistice signed in Moscow on 28th October.
- There was no (land) fightings between the western Allies and the Bulgarians.

FTL/FFO : The most important point IMHO is that the western Allies and Bulgarians are very close as soon as February 1942, with the allied landing in Limnos.
Morevover, in January 1943, the Allies take Samothrace: the story doesn't talk about bulgarian troops defending there (only German and Italians), but there should have been some, since the island was annexed by Bulgaria.
If not, it has to be explained!
The only reason would be that the Germans wanted to avoid a "contact" between the Bulgarians and the western Allies (Berlin not trusting Sofia's reliability?) and force the Bulgarians to leave Samothrace and Thasos. Sofia would protest, but...

The "Percentages Agreement" occurs in the Athens conference in November, before the failed German attempt for a coup in Sofia and the side-switching of Bulgaria, with the Soviet army still far away.
Since the western Allies are on the coast of Thrace, there is no hope for Stalin to gain access to the Aegean See. So the Soviet attitude will be certainly clear very soon: occupied territories must be evacuated, but Bulgaria is ours!

The Bulgarians will leave the occupied territories with more of less good will, but they know they can't resist.
The greek resentment will be as important as OTL and (contrary to OTL) there will be (heavy?) fightings between Greeks and Bulgarians after the siege of Thessaloniki (Salonique), as the Bulgarian army starts its withdrawal.
Lots of Bulgarians (in the army, police, civilian administration, government) will have performed badly in occupied territories (see Wiki link above), so they probably can't let the western Allies become the masters in Sofia.
And the British know this very well: if they want to send troops in Bulgaria, they will have to rely on the Greeks and things would turn to hell then.


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On ne trébuche pas deux fois sur la même pierre (proverbe oriental)
En principe (moi) ...

[demolitiondan]

Et comme écrit sur AH par mes soins ...

[loic]

Il faudra quand même préciser cette question des troupes bulgares non présentes sur Samothrace lors de Tent début 43.
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On ne trébuche pas deux fois sur la même pierre (proverbe oriental)
En principe (moi) ...

[mikey1983]

[demolitiondan]

Il y a de très molles batailles entre bulgares et anglais à l'Est de Salonique. Et ce passage ... ben c'est pas moi.
_________________
Quand la vérité n’ose pas aller toute nue, la robe qui l’habille le mieux est encore l’humour &
C’est en trichant pour le beau que l’on est artiste