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loic
Administrateur - Site Admin
Inscrit le: 16 Oct 2006
Messages: 10782
Localisation: Toulouse (à peu près)
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 Posté le: Lun Juil 12, 2010 09:22 Sujet du message: |
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| Citation: | | 5. Provide the 100,000 Italian settlers in the Barce-Benghazi region with full agricultural support, including confirmation of land title and confirmation that Italy will regain full control of the colony of Libya post-war. |
Mark, I heavily doubt that such a political decision could be taken. The only deal with Italian settlers will be : keep producing and you will be allowed to stay here, at least until the war is over. Any decision about land property will be taken after the war.
The seizure of Sardinia in 1940 is a requisite for any viable scenario where France stays in the war (because of Corsica). And BTW the number of troops for this operation is not so important.
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marklbailey
Inscrit le: 05 Jan 2008
Messages: 121
Localisation: Canberra, Australia
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| Posté le: Lun Juil 12, 2010 10:24 Sujet du message: |
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Loic, I have been very careful to draw a distinction between APOD and FTL, and to show that different drivers coupled with logistics realities produce different results.
What you do in FTL is none of my affair. Therefore what is done in FTL with Sardinia and Corsica is also none of my affair.
For APOD, I did an exhaustive analysis of the British import program, and worked out what the impact of 'the big move' would be in shipping terms.
There is simply not enough shipping to do what was done in 'old FTL', so in APOD we did not permit ourselves to follow that path. The choices are therefore stark. In APOD, we chose to use the most optimistic scenario, which merely cancels the Sardinia operation, operations in Corsica, most operations in the Dodecanese and the French attack into Libya. The most pessimistic scenario is no French military operations at all in the Mediterranean for a year, and FNA starves. The 'cost' in the most optimistic scenario is seriously running down the British food stockpile, which has to be rebuilt afterwards.
So what was done was merely a variation on the OTL 'shipping swing' strategy used successfully through the war, by which the MoWT would 'swing' dry cargo ships from the import program to offensive military operations, running down stockpiles while they were underway, then stop such oeprations and 'swing' dry cargo tonnage back to the import program, to rebuild the run down stockpiles.
As for the political decision, the British historically used colonial seizures in wartime as bargaining chips, and routinely guaranteed private property in such places. In 1940, Britain has zero interest in new colonial possessions and zero interest in acceding to Arab nationalists - who have sided with Hitler.
So this is entirely a policy in Allied interest.
Regards: mark |
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patrikev
Inscrit le: 28 Mai 2010
Messages: 1765
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| Posté le: Lun Juil 12, 2010 23:24 Sujet du message: |
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Il y a beaucoup de sujets dans ces messages, et la discussion va sûrement s'embrouiller...
(Vous me permettrez de répondre en français, vu que vous lisez sans doute lieux le français que je n'écris l'anglais, et que le français est tout de même la langue majoritaire de ce forum)
1) Détail amusant: à l'époque coloniale, les Français ont de grandissimes projets de chemin de fer transsaharien, que les Britanniques saluent par un 
2) Non sans raison. Si vous calculez la quantité de mécanique, de rails, de charbon, d'eau et de matériels divers pour construire et faire fonctionner un chemin de fer en plein désert, et le tonnage nécessaire pour transporter tout cela, vous vous rendrez vite compte qu'il faudra des dizaines d'années pour le rentabiliser. Le transport par mer, même sur de longues distances, est beaucoup moins coûteux partout où il est possible.
3) Après l'opération Scipion (occupation de la Tripolitaine par les Français et non par les Britanniques, je vous rappelle), la navigation en convoi Indochine-Canal de Suez-Tunisie est possible. Pas besoin de faire le détour par le Cap.
4) Les nationalistes arabes ont des positions beaucoup plus complexes et plus variées que certaines historiographies ne le supposent. Un personnage que j'aime bien, Habib Bourguiba, en Tunisie, pense qu'une colonisation de peuplement italien au Maghreb serait une catastrophe, parce que les Italiens ont un fort excédent démographique à implanter.
5) Un chemin de fer en plein désert, le long de la mer, ferait une excellente cible pour les bombardements aériens et pour les commandos maritimes italiens. D'ailleurs, Dak69 est en train de plancher là-dessus, s'il est toujours d'accord.
6) Les Arabes de Libye ont peut-être aussi leur mot à dire dans cet histoire. Entre autres, il y a 20 000 réfugiés libyens en AFN (et je ne sais pas combien en Egypte et Soudan anglais) qui voudraient récupérer leurs terres confisquées par les Italiens. Si vous les vexez, votre chemin de fer Le Caire-Tunis risque de subir le même sort que le chemin de fer Damas-Médine au temps de ce cher colonel Lawrence.
7) Il n'y a pas de bateaux pour transporter les Italiens? Mais il y en a pour transporter les locomotives? J'ai comme un doute, là... Le directeur du MoWT serait-il en même temps un gros actionnaire de la London and North Eastern Railway? |
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patrikev
Inscrit le: 28 Mai 2010
Messages: 1765
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| Posté le: Lun Juil 12, 2010 23:26 Sujet du message: |
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| Ce qui serait par contre utile, ce serait un aqueduc pour amener l'eau du Nil vers la Libye, pour usages tant civils que militaires. Il me semble que Montgomery en avait construit un. |
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Xgentis
Inscrit le: 10 Juil 2010
Messages: 124
Localisation: Belgique.
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| Posté le: Lun Juil 12, 2010 23:41 Sujet du message: |
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| patrikev a écrit: | | Ce qui serait par contre utile, ce serait un aqueduc pour amener l'eau du Nil vers la Libye, pour usages tant civils que militaires. Il me semble que Montgomery en avait construit un. |
Un aqueduc du Nil vers la Libye c'est irréaliste les travaux seraient long, couteux et extrêmement pénible et pourrais même nuire a l'Égypte, une baisse même légère du niveau du Nil pourrais avoir de lourde conséquence sur sont agriculture toujours traditionnel qui dépend encore des crue du Nil a cette époque la.
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patrikev
Inscrit le: 28 Mai 2010
Messages: 1765
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| Posté le: Mar Juil 13, 2010 00:37 Sujet du message: |
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| Pas trace de l'aqueduc, j'ai dû confondre. Mais j'ai vu que Montgomery OTL, pendant sa marche vers la Tunisie, arrivait à faire débarquer à Tripoli 3 000 tonnes de fret par jour, ce qui dépasse largement la possible consommation de riz de l'AFN. Peut-être que Montgomery avait fait appel à un logisticien civil? |
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marklbailey
Inscrit le: 05 Jan 2008
Messages: 121
Localisation: Canberra, Australia
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| Posté le: Mar Juil 13, 2010 00:49 Sujet du message: |
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Patrikev – thank you for the thoughtful response. I do not speak French, but the automatic translation function makes this site ~80% comprehensible. Again, please note that I will not comment on FTL. That is not my project since we divided at the start of this year. Our aim in APOD is pure research – we want to improve our knowledge of 1939-45.
| Citation: | | 1 ) amusing detail : the colonial era, the French railway Have Grandissimes projects across the Sahara, That the British salute by a |
I was not aware of that, Shane will be interested.
| Citation: | | 2) Not Without Reason . If you calculate the Amount of engineering , rail , coal , water and Other equipment to construct and operate- a railway in the desert , and the tonnage required to move All That , soon you'll Realize That Will it take decades to Achieve Profitability . Transport by sea , Even over long distances, less expensive IS Much Wherever it is Possible . |
That is true where a railway system is being built from nothing. That is not true here, existing systems are being extended. Track extension is cheap and quick, merely a rail and labour issue. The expensive parts are the workshops, skilled labour and rolling stock. Sea transport over 1000 miles is 10% of the cost of rail if the ports are efficient. So what? In this case, the rail is dual function. It supplements sea transport, replaces some of it, but is also the land-side distribution network where it replaces long-haul road transport – which is ten times more expensive than rail.
| Citation: | | 3 ) After the operation Scipio (occupation of Tripoli by the French and not by the British , I remind you) , sailing in convoy Indo- Suez Canal -Tunisia is Possible . No Need to detour -through the Cape . |
I have no comment on ‘Operation Scipio’ in FTL.
In APOD, we examined it and found such an operation to be logistically impossible in 1940 given the Tunisian port infrastructure, disorganization caused by the big move, lack of ammunition, lack of parts and lack of fuel stocks. What we have done in APOD instead is replace it with what is logistically possible. A scaled down operation whereby the French Army pushes the Italians back a short distance, then conducts limited attacks to pin half their army to the western Libyan desert while the British attack from the east in December 1940-January 1941 (Operation Compass) as per OTL.
| Citation: | | 4) The Arab Nationalist positions Have Much More Complex Than Varied and more sacrifice part of Historiography guess . A Character That I like Habib Bourguiba , Tunisia , Said That settlement activity in the Italian North Africa would Be a Disaster , Because The Italians Have a strong surplus population to implement Implements . |
The circumstance for the French Empire is certainly complex, and we plan to leave it alone in APOD.
The circumstance for the British Empire is relatively simple.
In the mandates, there is a nationalist Arab revolt, supported by the Germans. This is being fought.
The Egyptian Government is busy suppressing the Muslim Brotherhood.
In Libya, the desert Arabs made the mistake of reverting to banditry. They got away with this in OTL. In APOD, the circumstances are different, and this cannot be permitted. Orde Wingate (who crushed the Arab nationalists attacking the Tapline by the simple expedient of exterminating them) has been given the job of stopping the Libyan desert Arab bandit campaigns.
Being Orde Wingate (the man was not sane), he will do so by exterminating the desert Arabs.
‘Operation Blowlamp’ Implications
In APOD, we are keeping the ‘old FTL’ ‘Operation Blowlamp’.
‘Operation Blowlamp’ means an operational force of 300 Stirling bombers based in Israel.
That is two full Groups and 5 independent Squadrons.
That is about 70,000 men and about £150,000,000 of bombers, with at least another £150,000,000 of ground assets. Local personnel will be employed wherever possible, Arabs as unskilled labour, Jews as skilled labour.
The ground asset infrastructure will displace much of the Arab rural population west of the Jordan (they will be paid, of course, and probably moved to Trans-Jordan where there is land for them).
These assets have to be protected from the ongoing attacks of nationalist Arabs.
Locally recruited troops are always preferred, so a King’s Jewish legion of two infantry brigades will be raised, and quickly expanded to four.
The effect of ‘Operation Blowlamp’ as developed by the European Team in ‘old FTL’ is profound – it establishes Israel as a defacto functional state in 1941, with a powerful army and a small but functional air force and then makes it a critical part of Allied Grand Strategy. This profoundly changes the entire relationship the British Empire has with the Middle east.
One of the smallest effects is that any person of the Jewish faith within the British Empire who wishes to relocate to Israel will be actively assisted to do so from early 1941.
In APOD, Israel will probably get Dominion status in 1944-45, if they want it.
I am not sure if the European Team understood, when developing ‘Operation Blowlamp’ that they were instituting the Balfour Declaration with powerful and immediate effect.
| Citation: | | 5) A railroad in the desert, Along the sea, would make excellent year target for aerial bombardment and the Italian maritime commandos. Moreover , IS Dak69 Currently On That floor , It Is Always in agreement. |
So what? There is already a vitally important coastal road already open to attack, and already having to be protected.
Water Pipeline.
Yes, a 6” drinking water pipeline was laid in 1942, replacing a 2” pipeline to Mersa Matruh.
Once the old Roman water system in the Green Hills is repaired, there would be no need for a pipeline. In any case, water for agriculture could not be brought so far.
Regards: mark |
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Xgentis
Inscrit le: 10 Juil 2010
Messages: 124
Localisation: Belgique.
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| Posté le: Mar Juil 13, 2010 02:04 Sujet du message: |
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You seems really agressive in your ways of writing IMO.
And impossible is not french.
The french didn't start from nothing etheir there were already troops present in the regeon before big move. But I agree I don't think the war would be shorter if France didn't surrender and retreat to FNA.
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marklbailey
Inscrit le: 05 Jan 2008
Messages: 121
Localisation: Canberra, Australia
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| Posté le: Mar Juil 13, 2010 02:14 Sujet du message: |
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Xgentis.
Not aggressive. No offence is intended.
Loic and I have discussed this language barrier in the past.
It has led to many misunderstandings.
I am trying to be simple and direct in my language. You will notice that I try to use short, simple sentences.
The aim is clear expression.
The intent is to avoid misunderstanding.
I also do not comment on FTL directly.
I try to explain the reasons APOD is different to FTL now. We have different aims. We have different methodologies. Frank Stora has explained the FTL aims to me.
Our aims in APOD are smaller. For us it is a pure research project. So we base actions on available facts, as we understand them, and on 'logical path analysis'. When the known facts change, we change APOD where it is possible.
The FTL Operation Scipio was discarded in APOD for two main reasons.
1. It was logistically impossible to ship the required British Empire forces to Egypt and train them before December 1940. The ships to do so do not exist.
2. It was logistically impossible to ship the fuel and ammunition required by the French Army and Air Force in Tunisia. Bulk aviation and Army fuel has to be shipped from British refineries. Bulk fuel storage tanks have to be built in Tunis. A second tanker berth has to be built there. Railway tanker trucks have to be imported to move it. Road tanker trucks have to be imported to get it forward.
So, in APOD, we reduced the French part (Operation Scipio) to what was logistically possible for them to do. The British part (Operation Compass) is the same as historical.
Regards: Mark |
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loic
Administrateur - Site Admin
Inscrit le: 16 Oct 2006
Messages: 10782
Localisation: Toulouse (à peu près)
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| Posté le: Mar Juil 13, 2010 07:17 Sujet du message: |
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Last comment and I'll split this topic and post back messages to the APOD topic.
So everybody please stop answers for the moment.
In fact, I was thinking of creating an entire APOD section but this is not the place. I prefer that discussions on APOD continue on the right forum.
So I'll move these messages in one topic on this forum.
| Citation: | | In APOD, we examined it and found such an operation to be logistically impossible in 1940 given the Tunisian port infrastructure, disorganization caused by the big move, lack of ammunition, lack of parts and lack of fuel stocks. |
This is wrong for several reasons : 1) the Big Move doesn't involve Tunisian ports. 2) No lack of ammo/part/fuel in NA in June 1940, there are stocks for two months of operations (this is OTL), not even counting what is evacuated from France.
| Citation: | | The effect of ‘Operation Blowlamp’ as developed by the European Team in ‘old FTL’ is profound – it establishes Israel as a defacto functional state in 1941 |
Huh ? Blowlamp in FFO/FTL has nothing to do with Israel. It starts from Greece and Dodecanese. Even if in APOD Crete falls in German hands (which seems very unlikely), there is no reason to base Blowlamp's planes in Israel. You can still win some flying hours if you base them in Cyprus or in Libya.
| Citation: | | 1. It was logistically impossible to ship the required British Empire forces to Egypt and train them before December 1940. The ships to do so do not exist. |
Excuse me but this is bullshit if you consider the small number of equipment moved (no new troops) and the contribution of French/Belgian/other ships. This is a matter of strategical priority anyway : if the Allies decide that for the safety of French NA, Italian Libya must be conquered, it becomes the priority.
2. It was logistically impossible to ship the fuel and ammunition required by the French Army and Air Force in Tunisia.
The French are in June/July receiving vehicles from the USA.
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